世界经济形势分析与展望

Analysis and forecast of the world economy

2011年全球经济复苏步伐明显放缓，整体经济下行风险加大。2012年世界经济将面临许多不确定性，全球继续维持低速增长的可能性很大。

The pace of global economic recovery has slowed down markedly and the risk of a sagging world economy has been increasing in 2011.However,the economic slowdown was taking place at different speeds in different categories of economies.The momentum of economic recovery in the developed economies is clearly insufficient,and its economic growth rate is far lower than the rate of the emerging economies and has declined much more than that of emerging economies.Many big developed economies are facing very severe employment situation now,while the space of the their fiscal and monetary policies have been compressed by the upgrade of the sovereign debt crisis and long-term low interest rates,which are associated with the turmoil in international financial markets,the sluggish growth of international trade and investment,fluctuations in international commodity prices,and aggravated social problems.In addition,2011 is a year full of natural disasters by which the global economic recovery has been worsened.All of the above factors have great impacts on the current world economic development,and their after-effects will continue for a long period of time.The world economy in 2012 will face many uncertainties and most likely maintain slow growth.