中国持有美国资产机会成本的估算

The Opportunity Cost of Holding U.S. Assets by Chinese Investors

基于美国经济分析局(BEA)公布的数据,分别估算出1999年后美国投资者持有海外资产、美国国外投资者和中国投资者持有美国资产的资产所得。相比较而言,美国投资者持有海外资产能获得较高的纯资产所得率。虽然近年来中国持有美国资产数量快速增长,但中国持有美国资产的纯资产所得率却较低。如果将同样数量的资产转由美国投资者进行对外投资,那么中美投资者所获得的纯资产所得之差便构成了中国持有美国资产的"机会成本"。随时间推移和中国对美国资本输出数额的逐年剧增,中国持有美国资产的机会成本也在同步增加。中国持有美国资产承受的机会成本既是美元国际地位的体现,也能反映出中国持有美国资产的收益状况,更是中美两国获取对外投资回报能力差异的体现。

Based on the data U.S.Bureau of Economic Analysis(BEA) published,this paper estimates the capital gain of U.S.investors by holding overseas assets,and the capital gain of U.S.foreign investors and Chinese investors by holdings of U.S.assets after 1999.In comparison,foreign assets held by U.S.investors can obtain higher pure capital gain rate.The number of U.S.assets held by China's investors grows rapidly in recent years,but the pure capital gain rate is very low.If the same amount of assets invested by the United States,the difference of the pure capital gain acquired between U.S.investors and Chinese investors is defined as the 'opportunity cost of holding U.S.assets'.While time shifting and the growing amount of capital export,the opportunity cost of holding U.S.assets beard by Chinese investors is increasing.The opportunity cost of holding U.S.assets reflects the dollar's international status and the earning position of the U.S.assets held by Chinese investors.Further,it can reflect the capability of acquiring return of investment.