防空导弹单发杀伤概率研究

Research on Kill Probability for Single Air-Defense Missile

为了研究单发防空导弹杀伤区内杀伤概率的变化规律,根据防空导弹的杀伤原理,分析了单发防空导弹杀伤概率的各种影响因素,建立了防空导弹杀伤概率的数学模型.计算了防空导弹单发杀伤概率,分别确定了制导误差、引信引爆点散步、引信起爆点概率和战斗部毁伤概率的计算方法.以某型防空导弹为例,通过Matalab软件仿真,分析了防空导弹在杀伤区内的单发杀伤概率,得出了单发杀伤概率与弹道偏差的关联值表.结果表明,随着弹道偏差的增大,防空导弹单发杀伤概率逐渐减小,为防空导弹有效抗击空中典型目标提供了指标决策依据.

To study the change law of kill probability for single Air-Defense Missile（ADM） in killing scope,the factors affecting kill probability were analyzed according to kill principle of single ADM,and the mathematical model of kill probability for ADM was established.The kill probability for single ADM was calculated.The calculation methods of guidance error,priming distribution of fuze,priming probability of fuze and damage probability of warhead were respectively determined.Taking certain type ADM for instance,the change of kill probability in killing scope was analyzed;the relating table of kill probability and trajectory error was obtained by Matalab simulation.The result shows that the kill probability of single ADM gradually decreases with the increase of trajectory error.The study result offers decision strategy for controlling ADM to hit target effectively.