主承销商的买入推荐可信吗?——来自中国的证据和启示

Are Underwriter Analysts' Recommendations Reliable?Evidence and Implications from China

以2004-2009年的A股IPO公司为样本,我们探讨主承销商分析师买入推荐的可信性问题。我们的研究表明,在市场表现较差时,主承销商分析师倾向于给出买入推荐。此外,相对于主承销商,市场更相信其他券商分析师给出的买入推荐。我们还发现,其他券商分析师也能够识别主承销商买入推荐所包含的乐观性偏差。我们的这一结论为主承销商分析师所面临的利益冲突问题提供了直接证据,不仅有助于投资者更好地进行投资决策,也有利于监管当局对证券分析师行业对症下药,从而更好地保护投资者利益。

Using the IPO sample in 2004-2009, we explore the credibility of underwriter analysts＇ recommendations. We find that the stocks that underwriter analysts highly recommend perform more poorly than unaffiliated ones before, on and after the recommendation date. We also find that the optimistic bias from underwriter analysts is alleviated by unaffiliated ones. These findings provide direct evidence of potential interest conflict inherent in underwriting relationship, thus helping us understand the analyst industry in China.