FDI外溢效应不确定性的古典解释与经济转型

Classical Interpretation about Uncertainty of FDI Spillovers and Economic Transition

国家之间在分享全球化利益时的矛盾致使全球化呈现出钟摆式的运动规律。当全球化向社会保护回摆时,追求经济组织效率和分工与专业化经济成为主流的经济意识形态,其结果是迅速提高的技术进步率引起了出口产品多样化、产业结构和商业组织的急剧变化;而全球化高涨期则是追求资源配置效率和规模经济成为主流的经济意识形态,其结果是技术效率得到迅速改善,引致技术优势在全球范围内的新一轮竞争。因此,无论是全要素生产率、劳动生产率,还是创新率在全球化高涨期的变化趋势假如不是下降的话,也是不确定的,这也很好地解释了FDI外溢理论分歧。实证分歧的原因除了研究对象本身的不确定性以外,还有四类纯粹计量方法造成了程度不等的误差所致。因此,我国在即将到来的全球化逆转期要坚持走"精细化"的开放道路并以此实现经济转型。

It gives a bell-crank action to the globalization that contradiction of sharing the benefit from globalization between nations. When the action has a backswing to social protection, it becomes the main economic ideology that pursuing efficiency of economic organization and economies of specialization and division of labor and then the diversification of export product and the changes about industrial structure and commercial organization derived by increasing technological progress rapidly. Whereas it would become the main economic ideology that pursuing efficiency of resource allocation and scale economies and then technologic efficiency （so called Coelli efficiency） must have increased rapidly. So the variation trend of TFP, labor productivity and innovational rate could be decreasing or ambiguous at least. It is the cause of theoretic divarications about FDI spillover, and some empirical errors found in many literatures could be caused by four econometric methods too. Thus economic transition must try for elaborate mode of open during globalization backspin period.