珠江三角洲地区2008～2020年耕地资源供需态势及对策分析

Pearl River Delta 2008-2020 land reserve require and supply condition and countermeasure analysis

耕地不仅影响区域粮食安全,还作为一种特殊的绿地资源,影响区域生态安全。文章分析预测了珠江三角洲2008～2020年间粮食安全、生态安全、建设占用和农业产业结构调整对耕地的需求量及其补充耕地能力,得出:到2020年,珠三角可以实现耕地数量上的占补平衡,但由于农业产业结构调整对耕地需求量偏大,耕地总量仍会持续减少,粮食自给率仍会降低,2020年末耕地保有量难以满足30%的粮食自给率需求,也低于区域生态系统处于最佳状态所需的耕地规模,珠三角不仅"吃饭与建设"争地的矛盾十分尖锐,"生态与建设"争地的矛盾也不小,为此,珠三角应控制农业产业结构调整规模,严格保护耕地及农地,加大农业投入,提高耕地综合生产能力,完善粮食储备体系,提高建设用地集约利用水平,以保证区域粮食安全和生态安全。

Cultivated land not only influence food s-ecurity but also effect eco-security as a kind of special green area.Demands for cultivated land are calculated separately from aspects of food secutiry,eco-security,construction and readjustment of the agriculture structure from 2008 to 2020.Analysis indicate that cultivated land will still decrease because of the great demand of readjustment of the agriculture structure,though cultivated land occupation by construction can be supplemented.So food self-sufficient ration will decrease too,and cultivated land can not fill demands for food self-sufficient ration of 15 percent in 2020,also under the demands of eco-security.In order to insure regional food and ecological security,more rigorous protection seytems for cultivated agriculture land must be executed,and scale of readjustment of the agriculture structure must be controled strictly,comprehensive grain production capacity must be raised,intensive utilization level of construction land must be improved.