重庆市大渡口区土地利用分析与预测研究

Land Use Analysis and Prediction of Dadukou District,Chongqing

本文用灰色预测模型对重庆市大渡口区耕地和建设用地需求进行预测,结果显示,大渡口区耕地面积在今后十年仍将持续下降,但其下降速度会逐渐缓慢,建设用地面积将持续稳步增加,建设用地面积的增加是以减少耕地面积为代价的。提出了保持土地合理利用、总量动态平衡的一些建议。

This paper used grey prediction model to forecast the demand of cultivated land and building land of Dadukou district,Chongqing,and the results showed that,the cultivated area will continue to decline in the next ten years,but their rate of decline will gradually slow;the construction area will continue to increase,and increase in the construction area is at the expense of reduced arable land.Some of the proposals on rational utilization and the total dynamic balance of land are made.