基于Probit模型的产业内贸易影响因素差异研究:以中国和东盟产业内贸易为例

Analysis on Difference of Influencing Factors of Intra-industry Trade between China and ASEAN Based on Probit Model

本文利用联合国SITC(REV.04)标准和2009年的数据,对中国与东盟产业内贸易指数的分析表明:新加坡、马来西亚、菲律宾、越南、泰国等与中国产业内贸易程度较高,其他东盟成员国与中国的G-L指数较小。Probit模型估计结果显示出中国与东盟产业内贸易的影响因素因行业不同而不同,并不具一致性。如外商直接投资显著促进了东盟与中国初级产品的产业内贸易,但对制造业无明显影响。而教育支出则显著地促进了中国与东盟间规模最大的机械及运输设备(SITC7)行业内贸易,但对其他行业影响不大。

Using the United Nations SITC（REV.04） codes and data of 2009,the intra-industry trade（IIT） analysis between China and ASEAN member coun-tries reveals that Singapore,Malaysia,Philippines,Vietnam and Thailand have a higher level of intra-industry trade with China while other ASEAN member coun-tries hold a smaller G-L index with China.The estimation of Probit model shows that IIT factors vary with different industries and there is no consistency to say.For example,foreign direct investment has significantly promoted the in-tra-industry trade of primary products between China and ASEAN but not so of industrial products.Education expenditures have significantly promoted the intra-in-dustry trade of largest machinery and transport equipment industries（SITC7） be-tween China and ASEAN while the effects to other lines are not obvious.