基于PDL模型的舰船建造成本预测方法研究

Research on the Forecast Method of Construction Cost of Warships Based on the PDL Model

指出物价波动剧烈的经济背景下,静态估算方法在舰船建造成本预测中存在的不足,在分析物价变化对舰船建造成本的影响机理的基础上,引入动态经济分析模型——PDL模型,选取PPI、CPI及其滞后值作为自变量,建立了舰船建造成本的预测模型。以某型舰船的批量建造成本作为数据样本,进行了实例分析,并与静态线性预测模型的分析结果进行对比,结论显示,采用动态经济预测方法能够更加客观的反映舰船建造成本的变化规律,有利于实现对成本的科学预测和精确控制。

Points out that against the economic background with frequent fluctuation in price, the deficiencies of static estimation methods in analysis of construction cost of warships. Base on analysis of the influence of price fluctuation on construction cost of warships, a dynamic model-the PDL model is introduced. Select index PPI, CPI and its lag value as independent variables, establish a new forecast model of construction cost of wamhips. Choose a certain type of warship＇s batch construction cost as data sample, make a example analysis, and compared results between the linear prediction model and PDL model. Result shows that, using dynamic economic forecasting method can reflect the change rule of warship＇s construction cost more objectively, which is helpful to realize scientific prediction and accurate control of cost.