对外开放、基础设施规模与经济增长

Openness,Infrastructure Scale and Economic Growth

本文采用主成分分析法构建了一个综合考虑国际贸易和FDI因素的对外开放指标和综合考察4类基础设施的基础设施规模指标。在此基础上利用中国28个省份1995—2008年的面板数据,以工具变量两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)研究基础设施规模、对外开放与省区经济增长之间的关系,并检验了基础设施规模是否提高了对外开放对省区经济增长的促进作用。本文的实证结果表明:对外开放和基础设施规模都显著地促进了省区经济增长,对外开放和基础设施规模每提高1%,将导致人均实际GDP提高0.379%和0.251%;基础设施规模提高了对外开放对省区经济增长的促进作用,在基础设施相对发达的地区,其对外开放对省区经济增长的偏效应明显地高于基础设施相对落后的地区;最后从动态过程看,对外开放对各省区经济增长的边际影响都有不同程度提高,而基础设施规模对省区经济增长的边际影响在部分地区出现下降。

This paper constructs an economic opening index considering the factors of international trade and FDI by using the principal component analysis method, and constructs the regional infrastructure index which contains four kinds of infrastructure by using the same method. On this basis, we use panel data of 28 China＇s provinces from 1995 to 2008, and adopt two- stage least squares （2SLS） method to investigate the relationship among infrastructure, economic opening and economic growth, and test whether infrastructure raises the promotion of economic opening to economic growth. The empirical conclusions of this paper are following： Economic opening and infrastructure contribute significantly to regional economic growth, an increase in the economic opening and infrastructure by 1% raises China＇s real per capita GDP by 0. 379% and 0. 251% respectively; Infrastructure raises the promotion of economic opening to economic growth, in the regions with developed infrastructure, the partial effect of economic opening on economic growth is much higher than in the regions with under- developed infrastructure; From the dynamic process, the marginal influence of economic opening on regional economic growth is increasing, while the marginal influence of infrastructure on economic growth is decreasing in some regions.