蒙特卡罗法在库存决策中的应用研究

Research of Monte Carlo method application in inventory decision

针对需求的不确定性特点,借助蒙特卡罗法(MCM)和仿真语言GPSS,设计一个具有库存控制、销售仿真功能的库存运营模型。围绕库存量、库存损失、订货批量、订货周期、产品价格、销售额、利润等关键因素,对销售需求、库存控制及订货点的变化情况进对仿真模型模拟。通过仿真数据、图表的结果就可以判断库存计划是否合理。利用实际相关数据来检验仿真结果,说明系统仿真能为企业决策者提供接近现实情况的、有科学依据的参考数据。

The article aimed at the characteristic of indetermination, and with the help of Monte Carlo method （MCM） and the simulation language--GPSS[I], designed an inventory control and sales operation simulation model. In process of distribution demand, inventory control, order point control are changed into the simulation model, which we can simulate it by surrounding stocks, inventory lose, order period, pricing, sales, profit and etc. Through the simulation data, diagrams of the results can be judged whether a reasonable invention plan. It can be showed the system simulation by the actual data to test the simulation results can give decision makers some actual and scientific reference values.