一种改进的灰度预测模型

An Improved Gray Pridiction Model

灰色预测模型通常是GM模型,但预测精度有时不令人满意。在对模型GM做了进一步研究的基础上,提出了一个预测精度较高的新灰色预测模型,并从理论上证明了这种模型可以有效提高建模数据序列的光滑度。最后把此方法应用于东部某镇GDP的建模中,试验结果表明该方法是可行且有效的,所建模型的精度优于传统GM(1,1)模型的精度。

Gray pridiction system is the GM model,but its prediction accuracy is unsatisfactory.With the deep insight to the gray system prediction method,a new gray system prediction model with higher precision of prediction is proposed and proved theoretically that this model can improve the smoothness of raw data series.The improved model is applied to forecast GDP of town of East.The result shows the method is feasible and effectual,the model＇s accuracy is better than the traditional GM（1,1）.