摘要
从潜在产出角度对电力供给缺口概念进行界定,并采用潜在产出常用测度方法——HP滤波法测算中国1980～2009年的电力供给缺口,借助Granger因果检验法对电力供给缺口与经济波动关系进行验证。结果表明电力供给缺口与经济波动(考虑通胀)互为因果关系,根据潜在产出分析思路估算电力供给缺口是有效合理的。
From the perspective of potential output,this paper defines the concept of power supply gap,and uses HP Filter to estimate Chinese electricity supply gap from 1980 to 2009.It verifies the relationship between power supply gap and economic fluctuations with the Granger causality.The results show that the electricity supply gap and economic fluctuation(considering inflation) are mutually reinforcing,and the research method of power supply gap with potential output theory is valid.
出处
《软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第1期25-29,35,共6页
Soft Science
基金
美国福特国际合作项目(1042012920090885)
2011年中央高校基本科研业务费个人项目(CDJXS11020006)
