财政分权、地方政府竞争与房价波动:中国35个大中城市的实证研究

Fiscal Decentralization,Local Government Competition and House Price Fluctuation:An Empirical Analysis of 35 Large and Medium-sized Cities in China

运用1999～2008年中国35个大中城市的住宅平均价格和宏观经济基本面相关变量的面板数据,对住宅价格、财政分权及地方政府竞争之间的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:财政分权和地方政府竞争对住房价格产生显著的正向影响,财政分权对住房价格的影响存在区域性差异。认为房价要回归理性增长水平,应健全地方政府的财政监管体系,规范地方政府的土地财政行为,适当提高地方政府在财政总收入中所占的比重,建立健全地方政府官员政绩考核体系。

By using the panel data of house price and the economic fundamentals of 35 cities in China from 1999 to 2008,the paper studies the interactions between house price,fiscal decentralization and local government competition.The empirical analysis shows that fiscal decentralization and local government competition have significantly positive influence on house price,and the influence of fiscal decentralization is different between regions.To realize rational house price growth,financial management system of the local government should be sound,the land finance should be regulated,the proportion of the local government fiscal revenue should be increased and the assessing system of the local government official achievements should be established.