2011-2020年甘肃省护理人才队伍的预测与需求分析

Prediction and demand analysis of the registered nurses in Gansu province from 2011 to 2020

目的:预测和分析甘肃省2011-2020年注册护士数和社会需求,为制定护理人才队伍培养与发展规划提供依据。方法:用灰色系统GM(1,1)预测甘肃省每千人口注册护士数。结果:预测到2020年甘肃省每千人口注册护士数仅为1.213,远不能满足社会和人民群众的健康需求。结论:应优化招生层次,提高教育质量,重视继续教育,改善创业环境,积极引进人才,以改善注册护士队伍的数量、结构、层次和质量。

Objective：To forecast the trend and analyze the social demand of the registered nurses in Gansu province in year 2011-2020.Methods：Gray system GM（1,1） was used to predict the registered nurses per thousand population in Gansu province in the coming ten years.Results：In Gansu province,the registered nurses are estimated to be 1.213 per 1000 people till 2020,whose statistics is far below the social demand.Conclusion：It is essential to speed up the education and cultivation of the nurses and attract excellent nurses to improve their quality and quantity of the whole nurse team.