中国地区产业专业化演变的U型规律

The U-shaped Pattern in Regional Industrial Specialization in China

经济发展过程中,一个地区自身的产业结构专业化或多样化水平的演变具有一般规律性,需要对规律背后深层次的形成机理进行研究。我们引入基于回归的不平等分解方法,对地区产业专业化影响因素的重要性进行排序。研究结果发现,中国各省及东、中、西部地区产业专业化的演变均呈现出U型规律;其原因在于消费者需求多样化、厂商技术进步和制度改善的共同作用;各个影响因素作用中,地区原有产业专业化水平、工资水平、交通基础设施、对外贸易及外商直接投资,依次为造成中国地区产业专业化发展不均衡的重要因素。以上分析为解决中国各省之间地区产业专业化发展的不均衡问题提供了政策指引。

In the course of economic development , ageneral pattern can be observed in the evolution of the specialization or diversification of a region's industrial structure.The dynamic underlying the formation of this pattern merits academic attention.This paper uses the regression-based inequality decomposition technique to sequence the determinants of regional industrial specialization in order of importance.The findings are as follows : a U-shaped pattern can be found in regional industrial specialization in all Chinese provinces as well as in the eastern , western and central regions of China. This is attributable to the diversification of consumer demand , technological progress and institutional improvement.Among the factors affecting this process , the existing level of industrial specialization , wage levels , the transportation infrastructure ,foreign trade and FDI are , in order , determinants which contribute to the unbalanced development of regional industrial specialization in China.The above analysis has policy implications for solving the problem of unbalanced development in regional industrial specialization across China's provinces.