南水北调东线工程输水系统运行风险研究

Risk Analysis and Assessment of the Water Conveyance System Operation in the East Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project

南水北调东线工程输水系统涉及堤防漫堤、渗透和失稳三种失事模式。分析了输水系统的风险机制,识别出系统的风险来自外来荷载、内部结构、运行管理等三方面,参考我国大坝安全评价和堤防工程设计规范等,建立了风险评价基准。采用层次-模糊分析法计算了输水河道运行综合风险概率;以河段长度为参数,通过聚类分析,得出了输水河道失事后果等级。在此基础上,根据风险评价基准,算出了各输水河道的风险等级。结果表明:高水河风险为低,中运河、胶东输水干线风险为中等,里运河等8段输水河道风险为较低。

There are three failure modes on the levees in the water conveyance system in the East Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project.These are over flowing,seepage and instability.The mechanism of the risk to the water conveyance system was analyzed.The risk factors from the external load,internal structure and the operational management were identified.The criteria of the risk assessment were established by referring to the Dam Safety Assessment and the Code for design of levee project.The integrated risk probability was evaluated by AHP-Fuzzy comprehensive method.The failure lost degree of water conveyance was classified by cluster analysis method.Finally the risk degree of different sections in the water conveyance was evaluated by combining the risk probability and the failure lost.The results show that the failure risk of Gaoshui River is low,the Zhongyun River and Jiaodong water conveyance section are medium and the rest sections are lower.