后穆巴拉克时代的埃及穆斯林兄弟会

The Muslim Brotherhood in the Post-Mubarak Era

穆巴拉克政权倒台后,穆斯林兄弟会成为埃及政坛最具实力的政治力量。它通过组党、组建政治联盟、引导过渡期政治安排等措施,巩固了其在政治格局中的优势地位。由于穆兄会在组织结构、经济实力等方面的优势,加之埃及世俗政治力量的式微,它旗下的自由与正义党有望在议会选举中胜出。迄今为止,穆兄会的政治议程尚不明朗,但政治现实将促使其趋于务实。穆兄会的经济政策与穆巴拉克政权相似,使其难以领导埃及实现经济转型。与此同时,穆兄会的崛起将促进阿拉伯国家伊斯兰党派走向联合,引发阿拉伯世界地缘政治结构的变动。当然,穆兄会上台也为埃及与以色列和美国的关系带来较大的负面影响。

The fall of Mubarak regime has turned the Muslim Brotherhood （MB） from a opposition organization into the most-powerful political power in the political arena of Egypt. MB consolidated its dominant position in the political landscape through forming a political party and a political alliance, forging opportune political arrangements in the political transition process. MB is a well-organized movement with abundant financial resources and much more readiness for the elections than the secular counterparts, which will guarantee the Freedom and Justice Party＇s good performance in the parliamentary elections. MB＇s political agenda still has a lot of ambiguities. However, the political reality will make it pragmatic. MB shares similar economic policies with Mubarak regime, therefore, it is implausible for MB to embark on a viable economic strategy. MB＇s rise will encourage the Islamic parties in the Arab countries to forge an alliance, which will therefore give rise to geopolitical changes in the Arab world. MB＇s rise would have negative impact on Israel and the west, particularly the United States. However, it is unlikely to lead to a dramatic deterioration of the relations between Egypt and the west.