北京市能源消费的因素分解分析

Decomposition Analysis of Energy Consumption in Beijing

本文利用迪氏对数指标分解法（LMDI）对北京市17个行业2005~2009年间的能源消费变动进行因素分解分析。将能源消费增长的总效应分解为3个部分：生产效应、结构效应和强度效应。生产效应是经济增长对能源消费增长的贡献,结构效应反映产业结构调整对能源消费增长的贡献,强度效应是指能源效率提高对能源消费增长的贡献。实证研究结果表明,生产效应是导致北京市能源消费增长的主要因素,结构效应和强度效应则延缓了能源消费总量的增长,但生产效应明显大于结构效应和强度效应之和,因此能源消费在此期间表现为增加。值得注意的是强度效应高于结构效应。

This paper attempts to identify and quantify the underlying driving forces which affect change of aggregated energy consumption in Beijing during the period 2005~2009.By using decomposition technique of LMDI,the change in aggregated energy consumption is decomposed into the contributions from three factors：output effect,structure effect and intensity effect.The production effect means that the economic growth contributes to the change of energy use,the structure effect is that the adjustments of industry structure contribute to the change of energy consumption,and intensity effect implies that the improvement in energy usage contributes to the change of energy consumption.The empirical results indicate that the production effect plays a significant positive role in increasing energy consumption,while the structure and intensity effects negatively contribute to energy consumption increase.However,the production effect outweighs the sum of structure and intensity effects,and therefore the aggregate energy consumption increased in the study period.It is noteworthy that the intensity effect is larger than structure effect.