基于GM模型的我国主要海洋产业灰色预测分析

The Grey Forecasting Analysis of the Chinese Major Marine Industries on the Base of GM

为了更加准确地反映我国主要海洋产业的发展动态,本文以2001~2010年的统计数据为研究基础,采用GM（1,1）灰色系统模型进行实证研究,分别预测了主要海洋产业增加值和主要海洋产业分项增加值,呈现了海洋产业未来的发展趋势。同时,对我国未来10年GDP发展进行了预测,结合我国海洋总产值占GDP比重的发展趋势,研究结果表明,主要海洋产业有着良好的发展态势,对国民经济的贡献将越来越重要。最后,提出了有可能影响预测结果的几点因素。

In order to more accurately reflect the major development in the marine industry,this paper uses the GM（1,1） Grey System Model to make an empirical study on the base of the statistical data for 2001~2010,and respectively forecasts added value of main marine products,the own added value of main marine products,and effectively presents the trend of future development of marine industry.Meanwhile,the paper forcasts GDP in the ten years,combined with domestic marine industries of sub-GDP,and the results show that the maior marine industry with good development and contribution to the national economy will become increasely important.In the end,the paper proposes several possible factors.