基于时序和随机风速模型的含风电场发电系统充裕性评估

Adequacy Evaluation of Power Generation System with Wind Farm Based on Sequential and Stochastic Wind Speed Models

建立基于蒙特卡洛模拟(MCS)的含风电场发电系统可靠性评估模型,包含时序和随机风速模型的建立及序贯和非序贯蒙特卡洛模型的建立,并把该模型应用到RBTS测试系统中。由不同风速模型和不同MCS方法构成4种组合可靠性评估模型,本文分析4种组合模型的系统缺电概率LOLP、缺供电时间期望LOLE、期望缺供电量EENS、可靠性指标,并确定时序和随机风速模型及序贯和非序贯MCS方法对系统充裕性的影响,同时分析了风电场装机容量、系统峰值负荷等因素对系统充裕性指标的影响。

In this paper,a reliability evaluation model of power generation system with wind farms is presented based on the Monte Carlo simulation approach,which includes the building of sequential and stochastic wind speed models and sequential and non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation model.The proposed models are applied to the Roy Billinton Test System（RBTS）.Then four reliability evaluation models are built based on different wind speed model and Monte Carlo models.Such indices as LOLP（Loss of Load Probability）,LOLE（Loss of Load Expectation）,EENS（Expected Energy not Supplied） and reliability for four reliability evaluation models are analyzed.And the influence of sequential and stochastic wind speed models and sequential and non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation method on the adequacy of system is discussed.At the same time,the impact of such factors as the installed capacity of wind farm and the peak load of system on adequacy index is also analyzed.