基于GIS和Logistic回归的环首都经济圈土地利用变化机制研究

Study on Land Use Change of Economic Zone around Capital District Based on GIS and Logistic Regress Model

运用GIS技术与Logistic回归模型,采用2000~2005年环首都经济圈区域土地利用数据、基础地理数据以及社会经济数据研究了影响该区域土地利用类型变化的驱动机制。分析结果显示,耕地、林地、草地变化模型具有较高的拟合水平,且进入模型的因子与各土地类型变化情况有很高的相关性。该区域耕地、林地变化受自然、社会经济、通达性三大类因素的影响,而草地变化则主要受社会经济及通达性的影响。

Based on GIS technology and Logistic regress model,the driving forces of land use change in economic zone around capital district were analyzed in this paper,using the land use change map,socio-economic data from 2000 to 2005 and base geographic data.The results show that arable land,woodland and grassland change models have good fitness level,and the factors that are selected in the models have high pertinence with the related land use change model.The arable land change and woodland change are effected by three main factors： nature factors,socio-economic factors and access factors.Grassland change is mainly effected by socio-economic factors and access factors.