气象因子对第2代稻飞虱发生程度的影响及预测模型

Effect of meteorological factors on the degree of second generation rice planthopper occurrence and its prediction model

【目的】研究气象因子对第2代稻飞虱发生、发展的影响,为稻飞虱的预报和防治提供科学依据。【方法】利用广东省化州市1995～2011年稻飞虱系统调查资料和气象资料,对第2代稻飞虱发生程度与主要气象因子进行相关和通径分析,建立回归预测模型。【结果】气温是影响第2代稻飞虱发生程度的主导因子,降雨量、日照时数、雨日等对害虫发生程度的直接作用较小,但通过气温发挥间接作用。据此建立第2代稻飞虱发生程度的预测模型为y=0.3972x1+0.1801x2+0.0020x3+0.0035x4-0.0189x5-10.5637,利用模型回检历史拟合准确率为91.3%,而2011年预测结果与实际发生情况一致。【结论】气温是影响第2代稻飞虱发生程度的关键气象因子,生产中可以应用拟合的预测模型对稻飞虱的发生危害进行预测预报。

[Objective]The objective of this experiment was to study the effect of meteorological factors on occurrence and development of rice planthopper in order to forecast for prevention and control of rice planthopper.[Method]The regression prediction model was developed based on the correlation analysis and path analysis amongst occurrence extent of 2nd generation rice planthopper and main meteorological factors in the light of surveyed data and meteorological materials collected from the year 1995 to 2011 in Huazhou（Guangdong,China） .[Result]Temperature was found to be the prominent factor affecting the occurrence of second generation rice planthopper.Rainfall,sunshine hours and rainy days were found to have lesser direct influences on pest occurrence but played an indirect role through temperature.Accordingly,the prediction model of the occurrence degree of second generation rice planthopper was y=0.3972x1＋0.1801x2＋0.0020x3＋0.0035x4-0.0189x5-10.5637,from which the historical fitting accuracy came up to be 91.3%,and the prediction of the year 2011 conformed with the real situation.[Conclusion]Temperature is the key factor for the occurrence degree of second generation rice planthopper.The prediction model can be applied to predict the occurrence of rice planthopper and caused by it.