旅游产业规模差异与城市经济的耦合分析——以中国20个主要城市入境旅游为例

An Analysis on the Relationship Between Disparity of Tourism Scale and Urban Economy——A Case Study of Inbound Tourism of 20 Cities in China

借用基尼系数、变差系数、首位度等计量指标工具,以入境旅游人数为指标,研究了中国20个旅游城市入境旅游市场规模的空间差异性。研究发现,中国20个城市入境旅游市场规模的相对差异日渐缩小,旅游产业发展日益均衡,但各城市位序变化的特征不同。根据各城市入境旅游市场规模位序变化的特征,将20个城市分为加速发展型、减速发展型、稳定发展型和波动发展型等4种类型。同时,利用SPSS统计软件测算的城市入境旅游市场规模的差异与城市GDP存在较高的相关性,且关联度相当显著。构建统计量对城市入境旅游人数与城市GDP的耦合度进行测算,依据不同城市二者之间耦合程度的不同,将其分为低耦合、中耦合和高耦合3种类型,其中,南京市和杭州市两个城市入境旅游市场规模与城市GDP的发展高度耦合,两者协调发展,相互促进。最后分析了不同耦合度的城市旅游产业与城市经济的发展关系。

To reveal the disparity of tourism scale , this paper selects the number of entry-tourists as the criterion of tourism size. Based on the entry-tourists numbers of 20 cities in China from 2000 , the paper analyzes the difference of tourist scale among the cities with three criterions that included Gini coefficient, coefficient of variation and centralized degree. Then it discovers the dis- parity of tourism scale of 20 cities in China is declined as its fluctuating. According to the transformation of size ,the tourism de- velopment of 20 cities can be measured off as four： balanced-development , fluctuant - development ,accelerated- development and decelerated - development. The paper identifies a relatively high correlation between the number of entry - tourists and the gross domestic product of cities. From analysis of the coupling relationships ,the results indicate that two cities （Inner Hangzhou and Nanjing） on the frontier are high-coupling ,and other cities are mid-coupling and low-coupling . Finally, the paper also discusses urban tourism industry has too much to do with economic development ,in order to offer some reference for the research of region- al economy and regional tourism.