基于灰色系统GM(1,1)模型的海南旅游业收入预测

Grey System Theory GM(1,1) Model and Its Application to Tourism Industry Revenue Forecasting——Take Hainan Province as an Example

科学的旅游预测是促进旅游业可持续发展的重要保障,将灰色系统相关理论与旅游业相结合,介绍了灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型,并将其运用于区域旅游预测中,以海南省为例进行了预测,并获得了较好的预测效果。

Scientific forecasting of tourism industry is important to sustainable development of tourism. The grey system theory and GM （1, 1） grey forecasting model are briefly analyzed in thispaper, and combining with the characteristics of the tourism system, grey forecasting model GM （1,1） is applied to the regional tourism industry forecasting. Finally, an example of Hainan Province is taken to illustrate the application of the model with satisfactory results obtained.