研发型战略联盟风险预警机制研究

An Identification and Early Warning Model for R&D Alliance Strategies

研发型联盟对风险的识别和预警直接决定了研发活动的成败。本文针对研发型联盟面临的风险进行了风险预警设计,首先依据风险的来源划分了联盟可能面临的风险种类,其次明确了联盟风险识别程序;在此基础上,构建了包含六元素(目标、文化、方法、组织、信息、过程)的研发型战略联盟风险预警模式,六个元素构成了风险预警的有机整体,运用管理熵理论对研发联盟风险预警度量进行了量化处理,以熵权从内外两个来源确定联盟的风险度量,并以传递熵概念来明确预警信号指标的准确性,给出了一个较为完整和准确的量化预警模型,以期利于联盟决策者的风险防范应对策略制定。

RD alliance is a strategic alliance strategy that has been widely used to improve a company＇s technology innovation and product development activities.Companies often create RD alliances through equity relationships or contracts,and dissolve them when projects are complete.The RD alliance is embedded with conflicts and risks because its success depends on the realization of the synergy between partners and the synergy is difficult to be achieved.An early warning system for RD alliance needs to have a systematic approach to managing risks for all companies involved in the alliance.Therefore,any model needs to include warning objectives,organization,methods,information,culture and process.An early warning system＇s goal is to ensure that all early risk warning activities are aligned with the entire strategic objectives of RD alliance.We must integrate the overall perspective of RD alliance into the calculation of risks of early-warning activities that members are involved with.The model of establishing an RD alliance for risk warning agencies is dynamic,innovative and flexible.Systems thinking methods are required to solve risk warning issues,from a holistic point of view to the evaluation,classification,sorting,and optimization of RD project risks for various projects.From the risk warning perspective,a comprehensive three-dimensional information network is established.Organizational culture refers to risk warning activities related to the formation of standardized risk warning languages and attitudes.RD risk management process refers to risk warning activities that must meet the RD project life cycle requirements at different risk warning stages.Our proposed model is based on the entropy theory with the premise of minimizing complexity but with clear responsibilities,rights and interests structured for each subsystem.The model can also maximize the system capacity and the accuracy of information mining.These benefits can improve the degree of system integration with external environment.We have two sources of entropy from within and outside the Union to determine the risk measure.We apply the concept of entropy to improving the accuracy of clear warning signal indicators.The application enables us to derive a complete and accurate prediction model to help decision makers to formulate risk prevention alliance strategies.In conclusion,this paper identifies and highlights the risks of RD alliance,and describes the risk identification process.We also propose an early warning model of RD alliance,including the six elements of objective,culture,method,organization,information and process.We also evaluate our proposed model quantitatively based on the entropy theory.The entropy weight is adopted to measure RD alliance risks.We also use the transmitting entropy to describe the information veracity of the early warning system.Decision-makers of RD alliances can use the early warning model to improve measurement accuracy.