利用改进灰色模型的钟差预报算法及其精度分析

A prediction method of the clock errors based on modified grey model

灰色模型在钟差长期预报中虽具有一定的优势,但是预测的精度还有进一步提高的可能。在本文中,采用经过数据预处理和残差修正对一阶灰色模型进行了改进,再对GPS卫星钟差进行不同时间尺度上的预报。算例利用IGS提供的精密钟差产品,建立了一个基于改进灰色模型的预报算法,改进灰色模型的预报精度较传统的二次项模型有了很大的提高,且预报结果的收敛性也获得了一定程度的改善。

Grey model has some advantages in long-term clock errors prediction,but the prediction accuracy need to be raised.In the paper,the grey model was improved by data preprocessing and residual revision,then the result was used in satellite clock errors predicting in different time scale.It used the precise clock errors of IGS（International GPS Service for Geodynamic）to validated the grey model,and the result had a better accuracy.