陇中黄土高原地区耕地变化趋势及驱动力研究

Trend and driving factors of cultivated land use change in Longzhong Loess Plateau

本文结合1995～2005年陇中地区耕地统计资料,对该区耕地资源利用与变化的基本特征、耕地数量变化的基本过程进行研究,应用主成分分析法对近10年耕地变化的驱动因子进行定量分析。结果表明:①对耕地面积变化的总趋势预测显示,未来耕地面积会逐渐减少;②经济增长与社会发展和农业科技进步是耕地面积变化的主要宏观驱动因子,耕地减少在发生时间上和经济的快速增长基本同步,在空间分布上与地区经济发展速度水平相一致。

In the paper,the changes characters,process and flow of the cultivated land in the representative region of Loess Plateau were analysis based on statistical data in 1995-2005 years.Meanwhile,using principal component analysis methods,the driven factors of the farmland changes in Longzhong region in recent 10 years were also studied.The results indicated：①The total changing trend of cultivated land explained that the characteristic of the cultivated land will have the gradual decrease in the future;②The economic development,population growth and policies were the dominant macro-driving factors for the decrease in cultivated land areas,the rapid decrease of cultivated land areas coincided in time with the over-heated economic growth resulting from the direct investment in fixed assets,and spatial distribution of the decrease lands matched the differences in speed and scale of economic growth in different regions of the Longzhong Loess Plateau.