基于典型相关的我国农业投入与产出分析

Analysis of Input and Output of China's Agriculture Based on Canonical Correlation

选取有效灌溉面积、农用化肥施用量、农村用电量、农用机械总动力作为我国农业的投入变量,而谷类、豆类、烟叶、油料和水果产量作为农业产出变量,采用2010年《中国统计年鉴》中的数据,基于典型相关分析方法对我国农业的投入与产出进行了研究。结果表明,农用化肥施用量对我国农业产出的影响最大,其次为农用机械总动力的投入;我国农业的产出典型变量主要受谷类、油料和水果的影响;从所选变量来看,我国谷类、油料和水果产量的增加主要是由化肥和机械投入的增加所引起,它们呈现高度相关性。针对所得结论,提出了应逐步减少化肥的使用量、增加现代化农业机械的使用、增加农业灌溉投入的政策建议。

I select effective irrigation area,use of agricultural chemical fertilizer,use of electricity in rural areas,and total power of agricultural machinery as input variables of China＇s agriculture;I select grain,bean,tobacco,oil-bearing crop and fruit as output variables of China＇s agriculture.By using the data of China Statistical Yearbook in 2010,based on the analysis method of canonical correlation,I conduct research on the input and output of China＇s agriculture.The results show that the use of agricultural chemical fertilizer has the biggest impact on the agricultural output of China,followed by the input of total power of agricultural machinery;the canonical variable of agricultural output of China is mainly impacted by grain,oil-bearing crop and fruit;in terms of the selected variables,the output increase of grain,oil-bearing crop and fruit in China arises from the input increase of agricultural chemical fertilizer and machinery,and there is high-degree correlation between the two.According to the conclusions,the policy suggestions are put forward as follows：gradually decrease the use of agricultural chemical fertilizer;increase the use of modern agricultural machinery;increase agricultural irrigation input.