大连市水资源承载力动态研究

Study on Bearing Capacity of Water Resources in Dalian

大连市是我国北方严重的缺水地区之一,水资源问题已经成为制约大连市经济可持续发展的一个瓶颈。从大连市水资源环境现状出发,在全面分析大连市水资源承载力系统的基础上,建立了水资源承载力SD模型,模拟了在现状延续型、经济发展型、节水型、协调发展型4种方案下模拟了2005～2025年大连市水资源承载能力的动态变化。结果表明,在建设节水型社会的前提下,水资源循环经济发展是提高大连市水资源承载力的满意方案。

Dalian is one of the serious water shortage regions in northern China,the Water Resources issue has become the bottleneck of sustainable economic development in the area.According to the theories of system dynamics,a SD model for the carrying capacity of water resources was established through the comprehensive analysis of the system of water resources carrying capacity in Dalian.The dynamic changes of the carrying capacity of water resources from 2005 to 2025 were simulated under the 4 kinds of schemes,which are the existing continuation type,the economic development type,the water-saving type together with the harmonious development type.The results show that the harmonious development type is the best one for elevating water resources carrying capacity in Dalian.