气候变化对社会经济影响的风险评估研究评述

Review of the Researches on Risk Assessment for the Impact of Climate Change on Society and Economy

除一般意义上风险所具有的不确定性和危害性等特点之外,气候变化风险还具有复杂性、内在价值性及难以完全量化、动态性和客观性等特点。当前,国内外对于气候变化的经济社会风险评估研究主要包括对风险概率的建模与评估、指标体系的风险建模与评估、情景模拟的动态风险建模与评估方法以及气候变化风险的社会经济评估图标体系。由于气候变化风险的社会经济影响存在跨期性、不确定性,仍有很多未知的研究领域,如定量化、图谱化以及与自然影响评估的区分与方法合作等,未来研究仍有很多空间。

Besides the characteristics such as uncertainty,perniciousness and so on of risk in general perspective,climate change has the features of complexity,difficultly complete quantification of inner value,dynamic state and objectivity and so on.Currently,the research on economic and social risk assessment of climate change at home and abroad mainly includes modeling and assessing risk probability,modeling and assessing index system and dynamic modeling and assessing method on situation simulation as well as social and economic evaluation icon system for climate change risk.Due to the across-period feature and uncertainty of the impact of climate change risk on socio-economy,there are still many unknown research fields such as quantification,atlas-based description,methods for evaluation on natural impact and their distinction and combination and future research still has many spaces.