地质灾害可接受风险水平研究

Study on the Level of Acceptable Risk Level of Geohazards

可接受风险水平是地质灾害风险管制方法研究中重要的研究内容之一,其目的是通过估算地质灾害风险评价结果值,确定承灾体的受灾影响,然后将可接受风险水平作为风险评价的判据,评判所估算的风险值是否可以接受。通过对我国2000-2010年因地质灾害而死亡的人数以及每年总人口数据进行分析,针对我国地质灾害可接受风险水平的确定分析展开研究,提出了我国地质灾害可接受风险标准的上限值(可容忍风险线的风险值)为10-6/a,可接受风险标准的下限值(可接受风险线的风险值)为10-7/a,确定了我国地质灾害可接受风险水平FN曲线。

Study on acceptable risk level of geohazards is one of important research contents in the geological disaster risk control. Its goal is to identify the impact on vulnerability through estimating geohazard risk value. The level of acceptable risk is used as the criterion for risk assessment to judge whether the risk value can be accepted or not. Through analysis of the relation between the data of deaths because of geohazard and the total population each year from 2001 to 2010, the upper limit of acceptable risk level as 10-6/a （tolerable risk line） and the lower limit as 10-7/a in China are given. Finally, the FN curve for the acceptable risk level in China is plotted.