基于信息熵的灰色模型在地质灾害评价中的应用——以四川青川县为例

Application of Entropy-based Grey Model in Geological Hazard Assessment——A Case Study of Qingchuan County,Sichuan Province

地质灾害的发生是由地层岩性、地质构造、地形地貌、气象条件和人类工程活动等诸多因素综合作用的结果,依靠知识与监测无法完全认识其复杂的演变机制,是一种典型的"灰色系统"。基于灰色理论的模型在区域地质灾害危险性评价中得到了广泛的应用,但是由于地质灾害的复杂性,这种以模型为核心的评价方法难以抽象或概化出模型所需的条件,因此出现了评价方与评价对象之间的"不兼容"现象。传统的方法是利用人为的主观判断来获取评价模型所需的条件,不可避免地带来评价的随意性与主观性。通过引入信息熵理论,对传统的灰色模型进行修正,建立了基于信息熵的灰色模型,很好地解决了这个问题。以四川青川县为例,对该模型的正确性进行了应用,取得了较好的效果。

The occurrence of geological hazard is result of comprehensive effect of lithology, geological structure, topography, weather condition and human activities, and its complicated evolution mechanism can never be known perfectly with the knowledge and monitoring. The geological hazard is a typical ＂Grey System＂. It is widely applied in the geological hazard assessment of the model based on the grey system. However, because of the complication of geological hazard, this kind of assessment application can not abstract or generalize the condition which is necessary to the model, and it appears incompatibility between the assessment application and assessment object. The traditional approach to solve it is that the condition is obtained with human subjective judgments and arbitrariness and subjectivity are inevitable. With introducing the entropy theory, this paper modified the grey model and established the grey model based on entropy theory. It can solve this problem well. Taking Qingchuan County as an example, the correctness of this modified model is verified and a high accuracy is got.