台风灾害债券设计——基于广东省数据的实证研究

Design of Typhoon Disaster Bond Based on Guangdong Province's Data

台风作为全球发生频率最高,影响最严重的一种自然灾害,对我国的影响也非常严重。在巨灾风险证券化、巨灾债券已成为巨灾保险业大趋势的背景下,发展我国台风灾害债券具有重要的现实意义。以我国受台风灾害影响最严重的省份——广东省为研究对象,收集了其近30年相关台风损失数据,利用非寿险精算技术分析其台风的损失分布和次数分布,在此基础上利用CAMP模型和现金流分析对广东省的台风灾害债券做了初步设计。

China is quite seriously affected by Typhoon, which is a global disaster with the highest frequency and most serious effect. In the catastrophe insurance business, catastrophe risk securitization and catastrophe bonds have become a general trend. Under this background, developing Chinese typhoon disaster bonds has vital practical significance. The authors of this paper would take Guangdong province, most seriously affected by typhoon disaster in our country, as the research object, collect Guangdong province＇s typhoon loss data of nearly 30 years and use the non-life insurance calculation technique to analyze the typhoon loss and times distribution. Based on that, the paper uses the CAMP model and the cash flow analysis to make a simple, preliminary design for Guangdong province＇s typhoon disaster bond.