基于可变模糊聚类的城镇综合承灾能力评价研究

Research on the Assessment of Urban Comprehensive Disaster-bearing Capacity Based on Variable Fuzzy Clustering

城镇灾害的多样性、频繁发生与其造成的各种损失和破坏的严重化趋势,已经对城镇经济社会发展构成重大威胁。城镇应对灾害的预测、防御、救助及灾后恢复的综合能力,直接决定了城镇可持续发展的基础和能力。建立了基于城镇社会、经济和环境属性功能的城镇综合承灾能力评价指标体系,运用可变模糊聚类方法,通过指标权重、相对隶属度与聚类中心之间的动态迭代,得到了更为合理的样本城镇的防灾、抗灾、救灾和灾后恢复能力相对比较结果。与已有研究相比,可变模糊聚类在综合评价问题上的数据处理和分析能力更客观和多样化。

The diversity of frequent urban disaster as well as the severity of lost and damage have threatened the urban economic and social development. The integrative capability of disaster prediction, prevention, relief and post-disaster restoration directly determine the basis and capability of urban sustainable development. The index system of urban disaster bearing capability assessment is worked out based on the urban social, economic and environmental properties of functions. By use of variable fuzzy clustering method, more reasonable comparison re- sults of sample town＇s capabilities of disaster prevention, reduction, relief and post-disaster restoration are given based on index weighting and dynamic iteration of relative membership degree with cluster center. Comparative to the existing research, the variable fuzzy clustering is more objective and flexible in data processing and analysis of comprehensive assessment.