FDI占中国固定资产投资比重变动的倒U形特征与决定因素实证分析

Changing Process of FDI Ratio to China's Investment and Its Determinants

1979～2008年,FDI进入占中国年度固定资产投资总额比重的变动过程,呈现显著的倒U形变动特征。1979～2000年前后,FDI占中国年度固定资产投资比重显著上升,起促进作用的因素主要是国有企业和集体企业劳动就业人口比重相对下降,税收政策优惠,以及对外贸易开放度提高。2002～2008年,FDI占中国年度固定资产投资比重显著下降,起关键作用的因素主要有中国高等教育入学率提高,以及中国加入WTO后对外贸易壁垒下降。此外,本文还就FDI占中国年度固定资产投资比重变动的决定因素分不同地区进行了实证研究。

During 1979～2008, the ratio of FDI to China＇s yearly fixed investment has witnessed a inverse U-type process. We find that in the first period of 1979～2000, FDI has increased significantly relative to China＇s local investment due to state-owned firms employment and collective firms＇ employment declined as well as tax holiday policy and free foreign trade policy in China. In the second period of 2002～2009, increases in high school students and excessive liquidity in China have reduced FDI ratio to China＇s local investment.