中国财政政策规则及其体制稳定性分析

Fiscal Policy Rules and Regime StabilityAnalysis of China

本文构建了内生捕捉我国财政政策体制变化的财政规则,并对产出缺口稳定动机和债务稳定动机反应进行了分析。基于马尔科夫转换财政政策反馈规则的实证估计表明,不同体制下,财政赤字与政府债务和产出缺口之间存在不同的政策反应关系;与基于不变参数识别的规则相比,体制转换财政规则能更好地追踪我国财政赤字的时间序列行为。这意味着,假定财政政策体制总是固定的货币政策规则研究以及基于不变财政体制框架VAR度量财政政策冲击高频率效应的实证研究都应慎重。

This paper constructs fiscal policy rules of China to capture regime switch. Fiscal policy instrument （fiscal deficit） gradually converges to some target value, and reacts to output gap-stabilizing and debt-stabilizing measurements. According to Markov regime switching Empirical estimates, there are different reaction modes between fiscal deficit, government debt and output gap in different regimes. In contrast to constant parameters rule estimate, regime-switching one can capture time series of fiscal deficit better. Thus, researches on monetary policy rules and high frequency effects of fiscal policy chocks all should be careful because of their constant fiscal policy regime paradigms.