广州市2004--2008年大气污染对城区居民每日死亡率影响的时间序列分析

Time-series analysis on the acute mortality affected by air pollution, in the city of Guangzhou, 2004-2008

目的评价2004—2008年广州市大气污染短期暴露与居民死亡风险的相关性。方法采用时间序列方法，对主要大气污染物可吸入颗粒物（PM10）、二氧化氮（NO2）和二氧化硫（SO2）与每日死亡率相关性进行Poisson回归分析。结果模型分析结果表明，通过控制年龄、性别、时间、星期几效应和气象因素，发现PM10、NO2和SO：这3种大气污染物暴露与超额死亡风险存在正相关关系。广州市3种大气污染物在过去48h的暴露浓度每上升10μg/m^2所对应的总死亡的超额风险分别为0．94％（0．79—1．09）、1．55％（1．31～1．78）和1．09％（0．91—1．27）。研究结果表明，大气污染物暴露与心血管系统疾病或呼吸系统疾病死亡的关联显著，对老年人和女性的影响更为显著。结论广州市主要大气污染短期暴露与居民的超额死亡风险显著相关。

Objective To study the associations between daily mortality and the status of exposure to air pollution. Methods A time-series analysis was conducted to assess the relations between acute mortality and exposure to respiratory particulate matter （PM10）, sulfur-dioxide （SO2） and nitrogen dioxide （NO2） in urban residents of Guangzhou （2004-2008）, using Poisson regression. Results Through controling the factors as temperature, relative humidity, age, gender and time, significant increases were observed in all-cause mortality of 0.94% （0.79-1.09） for PM,0, 1.55% （1.31-1.78） for NO2, and 1.09% （0.91-1.27） for SO2, per 10 μg/m3, when increase of the lagging 2-day average concentrations of air pollution was seen, in Guangzhou. Stronger effects of exposure to air pollution were found on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, as well as in elderly（ ≥65 years） and female population. Conclusion Our results suggested that exposure to ambient pollution was significantly associated with the increase of excess risks, on total and cardio-respiratory mortality in the residents of Guangzhou.