改进的灰色马尔可夫组合预测模型应用研究

Application of Improved Grey Markov Combination Predication Model

根据灰色预测模型和马尔可夫预测思想,将灰色预测模型结合马尔可夫预测模型,并对组合模型进行了改进,采用递进转移概率矩阵,并结合1998-2007年安徽入境游客人数来预测2008、2009年的入境游客人数;结果表明:采用该改进后灰色马尔可夫的组合模型,可以得到比传统灰色马尔可夫组合预测模型更为准确的数据。

According to grey predication model and Markov predication model ideas, the grey predication model is integrated with Markov predication model, this combination model is improved. By using progressive transition probability matrix,the inbound tourists number to Anhui in 2008-2009 is predicated on the basis of Anhui inbound tourists number during 1998-2007 by the models,and the results show that application of improved grey Markov combination predication model can obtain more accurate data than application of traditional grey Markov combination predication model.