城乡统筹与就业效应的DID实证分析

DID Empirical Analysis of Overall Urban and Rural Development and Employment Effect

为考察我国城乡统筹所带来的就业效应,以全国城乡统筹试验区重庆和成都作为研究的切入点,借鉴国外衡量政策效应的主流计量研究方法—DID(Difference in Difference),使用2000-2009年全国七大分区代表城市的数据作为参照,对此予以实证分析;结果表明:可能由于政策滞后效应等原因,试验区城乡统筹后的就业效应与统筹前相比效果并不明显,还需加大政策的实施,才能更好的解决就业结构,解决城乡二元体制。

In order to investigate the employment effect brought by China＇ s overall urban and rural development, by taking national pilot zone, Chongqing and Chengdu, as research spot for overall urban and rural development, by learning foreign main quantitative research method for measuring policy effect, by DID （Difference in Difference） , by selecting the data of representative cities of seven districts of China as reference from 2000 to 2009, this paper makes empirical analysis and concludes that, probably because of lagging effect of policy and so on, the employment effect in the pilot zones of overall urban and rural development is not obvious by comparing it with the effect before the overall urban and rural development, as a result, consolidation of the policy implementation is needed so that the problems in employment structure and dual system can be solved.