基于LMDI的珠三角能源碳足迹因素分解

Decomposition of Pearl River Delta's Carbon Emissions Based on LMDI Method

如何控制区域碳排放增长是当前全球关注的热点。分解各因素对碳足迹的作用及影响权重,找出其主导因素,对推动碳减排开展有积极意义。本文结合IPCC碳排放因子,计算出1998-2009年珠江三角洲能源碳足迹,然后基于Kaya恒等式,运用LMDI对珠三角能源碳足迹进行因素分解。结果表明:珠三角能源碳足迹从1998年11272万吨上升到2009年的24905万吨,总体呈现快速增长趋势;经济规模的扩大是珠三角碳足迹快速增长的主要推动力,经济效应受经济规模、国家政策与国际金融环境影响;人口增长对珠三角碳足迹的增长也起到推动作用;能源效率的提高,是抑制珠三角碳足迹增长的最重要因素;研究期间珠三角能源结构变化不大,导致能源结构效应的作用表现并不显著;发展低碳产业、提高能源效率是抑制珠三角能源碳足迹快速增长的主要手段,适度控制经济及人口规模也是必须的。

How to control the growth of regional carbon emissions is the focus of the world. It is significant for carbon emissions control and reduction to identify the factors affecting energy carbon footprint and find out the key factor. Based on IPCC carbon emission factors, the energy carbon footprint of Pearl River Delta from 1998 to 2009 was calculated. Based on Kaya equation, the factors of energy carbon footprint in Pearl River Delta were decomposed with LMDI method. It was found that the energy carbon footprint in Pearl River Delta has risen from 112.72 million tons in 1998 to 249.05 million tons in 2009. Economic factor was the most important for the growth of carbon footprint, while economic effect was affected by economic scale, national policy and international financial environment. Population growth acted as a promoting factor for the energy carbon footprint. Energy efficiency was the key factor to inhibit the growth of carbon footprint. The effect of energy structure was insignificant due to its slight changes during the research period. Developing low-carbon industry and improving energy efficiency would be the primary means to reduce carbon footprint in Pearl River Delta, and to control the economy scale and population size would also be required.