基于情景分析法的中国馆碳减排效益评估

Assessment on Carbon Emission Reduction Benefit of China Pavilion with Scenario Analysis Method

建筑部门的低碳发展已成为推进我国低碳经济至关重要的一个组成部分,因此正确客观地评价建筑的低碳水平具有重要的指导意义。本文以2010年上海世博会中国馆为研究对象,采用碳排放情景分析法,针对中国馆的基准建筑与实际建筑,计算其世博结束后正常运行条件下的碳排放水平,评估中国馆实际建筑的碳减排效益。使用建筑能耗模拟软件DesignBuilder对建筑全年能源消耗水平进行了模拟,并通过相应能源品种的碳排放因子分别计算了实际建筑和基准建筑的碳排放水平;同时应用全生命周期方法(LCA)分析了中国馆实际建筑应用太阳能光伏、LED照明技术相比于基准建筑所带来的减排效益。结果表明:世博结束后正常运行条件下,中国馆实际建筑年碳排放量为18 969 t CO2e,基准建筑年碳排放量为25 770 t CO2e,因此,相比基准建筑,中国馆实际建筑一年减排6 801 t CO2e,年碳减排率为26.4%;减排效益主要由节能设计及绿色技术贡献,分别占96.3%和3.7%。本文通过综合评估中国馆的碳减排效益,以期为我国公共建筑低碳工作的开展进行有益的探索。

Low-carbon development of building sector has been an important part of low-carbon economy in China; thus, it is necessary to assess the low-carbon level of buildings accurately and objectively. This study focused on the carbon emission reduction benefit analysis of China Pavilion in 2010 Shanghai World Expo, based on scenario analysis method by comparing carbon emission level between the actual building and the baseline building for China Pavilion under regular operations after Expo. Energy consumption of both basaline and actual building was analysed with DesignBuilder, an energy consumption modelling software. Then, carbon emission was calculated by multiplying the energy consumption by a corresponding emission factor. Besides, carbon emission reduction benefits of green technologies applied in the actual building, including Solar PV and LED Lighting, were calculated with a life cycle assessment method. It was concluded that under regular operations after Expo, annual carbon emission of the actual building for China Pavilion is 18,969 t CO2e while that of the baseline building is 25,770 t CO2e, which means a reduction of 6,801 t CO2e or reduction ratio of 26.4% ; carbon emission reduction benefits are mainly contributed by green design （ 96.3% ） and green technologies （ 2.7% ）. Therefore, this study is a useful exploration for the development of low-carbon buildings in China.