基于GARP的欧洲大蚊在中国的适生性分析

Potential geographic distribution of Tipula paludosa in China,based on GARP modeling methods

欧洲大蚊(Tipula paludosa)的幼虫可危害多种植物,尤其偏好禾本科植物。该虫原产于欧洲,后传入北美地区,在当地造成重大的经济损失,在中国尚未有分布的报道。搜集欧洲大蚊在欧洲的已知分布数据,利用GARP生态位模型结合ArcGIS对其在中国的潜在分布进行了预测。结果表明:欧洲大蚊在我国有较为广泛的适生区域,包括21个省、市(区)。其中,吉林、辽宁、河北、山东、河南、陕西、江苏和天津的大部分地区都适生。据此提出了针对欧洲大蚊的风险管理措施。

As a significant pest of many plants,especially grass,European crane fly Tipula paludosa originated from Europe,has been expanding into North America and has caused considerable economic losses.There is no distribution report in China at present.Based on the distribution and biological data of European crane fly in Europe and North America,this study is made by using GARP and ArcGIS to predict the potential geographic distribution of European crane fly in China.The results showed that European crane fly could survive in many areas of China,involving 21 provinces,municipalities and autonomous region,including vast areas of Jilin,Liaoning,Hebei,Shandong,Henan,Shanxi,Jiangsu and Tianjin.Risk management strategy for European crane fly in China were discussed.