摘要
基于风险分析和风险决策的基本原理,针对水库来水的不确定性,分析了不同调度策略下收益(农业及生态补水量)与风险(受水区城市缺水风险),构建了确定性等价模型,分析与非确定性收益等价的确定性收益,确定了丹江口水库的农业及生态可补水量规模。结果表明,当汉江中下游、北调城市、清泉沟等需水处于2010水平年时,丹江口水库的农业及生态可补水量规模为5.0×108～9.0×108 m3。
This paper analyzes the volume of agricultural and ecological water supply and shortage risk of the urban water supply,which represents the benefits and risk respectively,under different scheduling plans based on the basic principle of risk analysis and risk decision.Then the certainty equivalence model is established.The certainty benefits are analyzed which are equivalent to the uncertainty benefits.The scale of agricultural and ecological water supply of Danjiangkou Reservoir is calculated based on the certainty equivalence model.The results show that the scale of agricultural and ecological water supply of Danjiangkou Reservoir is 0.5～0.9 billion m3 when the water demand of midstream and downstream of Han River,the water demand of Qingquangou and the urban water demand of the water transfer area are in 2010 level year.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2012年第2期24-27,共4页
Water Resources and Power
基金
"十一五"国家科技支撑计划基金资助项目(2008BAB29B08)
国家自然科学基金创新研究群体基金资助项目(51021006)
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费基金资助项目(200801005)
关键词
丹江口水库
生态调度
生态补水
确定性等价
Danjiangkou Reservoir
ecological operation
ecological water supply
certainty equivalence
