国外环保投资预测方法研究综述

Review on Forecasting Methods of Foreign Environmental Protection Investment

国外在环保投资方面有着丰富的经验,环保投资预测模型或者方法对中国有着良好的借鉴价值。首先介绍了不同国家和国际组织—中国、美国、英国、日本、德国、欧盟的环保投资的特征与内涵,其次详细分析了国外环保投资的三种预测方法,主要有OECD的FEASIBLE模型、投入产出法、均匀污染法,并且从预测内容、预测范围和预测时间、预测精度、数据要求等方面对不同方法的优缺点进行了对比分析,最后为中国环保投资预测研究提出了一些建议。

Foreign countries have rich experiences in environmental protection investment,so foreign forecasting models or methods have a good reference value.An introduction of environmental protection investment in different countries and international organization,such as China,United States,Britain,Japan,Germany and European Union,was firstly made.Then,three forecasting methods of foreign environmental protection investment,including OECD FEASIBLE model,input-output analysis and uniform pollution method were summarized,at the same time their advantages and disadvantages were compared from forecast content,range,time,accuracy and data requirements.Finally,some recommendations for research on Chinese forecasting model of environmental protection investment were given.