结构性通货膨胀的一个基本理论分析框架——基于状态空间时变参数模型的实证

A Basic Framework for Theoretical Analysis of Structural Inflation:An Evidence Based on Time Varying Parameter Model of State Space

以实体经济的部门瓶颈制约模型、货币视角的资产市场均衡模型为基础构建了一个结构性通货膨胀理论分析框架,并利用状态空间时变参数模型计量方法进行了实证检验。结果显示,农业部门瓶颈制约明显,产品供给弹性低,当需求短期内增加,农业劳动力、农产品价格上涨的结构性通货膨胀特征明显;同时,当货币流动性出现过剩,充足的流动性会将结构性通货膨胀推向更高水平,国内货币流动性、外汇储备则起到推波助澜的作用。

This paper attempts to build a analytical framework based on the sectoral bottleneck restrain model of the real economy and the asset market equilibrium model from the monetary perspective to conduct an empirical test by making use of the time varying parameter model of state space.The results show that the agricultural sector has an obvious bottleneck and the product supply elasticity is low.When the demand is increased for a short-term,the characteristics of structural inflation because of the rising of agricultural labor and agricultural products are obvious;at the same time,when there is an excess monetary liquidity,the adequate mobility will push the structural inflation to a higher level,while the domestic currency liquidity and foreign exchange reserves will add fuel to the fire.