中国碳强度分布的地区差异与收敛性——基于1995-2009年省际数据的实证研究

Regional Differences and Convergence of Carbon Intensity Distribution in China:Based on an Empirical Study of Provincial Data 1995-2009

通过利用IPCC的方法,估算1995-2009年中国省际二氧化碳排放量,并运用泰尔指数及其分解方法,对我国碳强度分布的地区差异进行测度并按照东、中、西、东北四大区域进行了结构分解;同时借鉴经济增长理论中的收敛性检验方法,对我国碳强度的区域差异进行了收敛性检验。研究发现:(1)从总体上看,中国碳强度的分布存在明显的区域差异,而且差异主要是来自于四大区域内部,其中中部地区对碳强度总体差异的影响最大,西部地区对碳强度总体差异的影响正在逐步加大。(2)运用面板数据和横截面数据的估计结果均显示1995-2009年中国碳强度的地区分布不存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛,此外也无明显的σ收敛特征。以上结论表明中国碳强度水平不会自动降低到"稳态",政府对碳减排的政策干预将是必不可少的。

By adopting the IPCC method to estimate the provincial carbon dioxide emissions from 1995 to 2009 in China,this paper measures the regional differences of the carbon intensity distribution in China and conducts a structural decomposition according to the four major regions of east,middle,west and northeast.At the same time,it makes use of the convergence testing method from the theory of economic growth to perform a convergence test on the regional differences of China’s carbon intensity.The study finds that：（1） Generally speaking,the distribution of China’s carbon intensity has obvious regional differences and the differences come mainly from the inside of the four major regions;of which the central region has the greatest influence on the overall difference of carbon intensity,while the impact of the western region on the overall differences is increasing.（2） The results of the estimate with the panel data and cross-sectional data show that there is neither absolute β convergence nor conditional β convergence existing in China’s carbon intensity regional distribution from 1995 to 2009,even no obvious σ convergence.The above conclusion indicates that China’s carbon intensity will not automatically reduce to the steady state,the government policy intervention to reduce carbon emissions will be essential.