中国区域经济收敛了吗?——基于时间序列的再检验

Is China's Regional Economy Converging? A Re-examination Based on Time Series

基于1952-2009年间的GDP数据,采用最近发展起来的随机收敛和β收敛检验方法,分析了中国区域经济差距的演进趋势。如果考虑结构突变,在断点之后的时期内有近半数省份呈现随机收敛和β收敛证据,并且当断点内生时β收敛的证据更为充分。东部地区和中部地区多数省份具有相同的增长路径,形成各自的"俱乐部"。幸运的是,东部省份近年来高于全国平均收入水平的程度有所缓解;而中部不少省份也逐渐缩小了与全国平均水平的差距;西部地区则有半数省份具有相同的增长路径,部分省份近年来与全国平均收入水平的差距也有逐渐缩小的趋势,表明2000年以来的区域协调政策在一定程度上实现了预期目标。

Based on the GDP data during 1952-2009 and by adopting the stochastic convergence and β convergence testing methods developed recently,this paper tries to analyze the evolution tendency of China＇s regional economic gaps.If the structural mutation is considered,the proofs of both stochastic convergence and β convergence can be found in half of Chinese provinces during the period after the breaking point,and there will be more evidence of β convergence when the breaking point is endogenous.The eastern region and most provinces in the central region have the same growth route,forming their own clubs.Luckily,in recent years,the higher level of average income of the eastern provinces than that of the whole country is mitigated to some extent;while some provinces in the central region are also narrowing the gap between themselves and the national average level;around half of western provinces have the same growth route,part of them also have the tendency of narrowing the gap.All of them show that the regional coordination policy since 2000 has reached its expected goal to some degree.