摘要
本文从19个前期气象、菌源因子与小麦赤霉病病穗率的17年(1970—1986年)资料中,挑选出5个相关极显著的因子,经主成分分析后选取4个因子,然后用模糊综合评判的方法组建了预测模型: Y=(0.2857 0.2619 0.2381 0.2143)·R用子模型Ⅲ回测,17年全部正确,1987年实报正确,1988年实报也较满意。
Five marked relative factors were chosen irom nineteen factors ofthe foreperiod weather,the fungus sources and 17 years'data ofwheat scab.After analysis of principal components four major factors wereselected.By means of fuzzy comprehensive judgments a forecastingmodel was set up as follow: Y=(0.2857 0.2619 0.2381 0.2143)·R In festing past 17 years'data,by using the submodel Ⅲ all resultscoincided with the facts.Practically forecasting in 1987 and 1988 weresatisfactory.
出处
《植物保护学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1990年第4期317-321,共5页
Journal of Plant Protection
关键词
小麦
赤霉病
流行因子
主成分分析
wheat scab——epidemic factor——principal component analysis——fuzzy comprehensive judgement
