中国保险业发展与经济增长关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

Relationship between Insurance Development and Economic Growth in China——Based on Exponential Analysis of the VAR Model

尽管保险业发展可以通过改变要素积累速度和宏观效率等多种途径来作用于经济增长,但源于经济增长的"需求追随"效应表明,对一些国家而言,很有可能是经济增长带动了保险业发展。本文基于向量自回归模型(VAR),对1982年～2010年中国保险业发展与经济增长的关系进行了考察。实证结果表明,我国保险业发展对经济增长的贡献是非常微弱的,经济增长的"需求追随"效应促进了我国保险业规模的扩大和结构的改变。但保险业的运行效率与经济增长几乎没有什么关系。

Even though insurance development can impact economic growth through changing the accumulation speed of production factors or macro efficiency, the ＂demand following＂ effect of economic ~wth indicated that for some countries ,it was more likely that economic growth drove up insurance development. This paper examined the relation- ship between Chinese insurance development and economic growth during the period from 1982 to 2010 by using a vector autoregressive model （VAR）. The empirical results showed that Chinese insurance development had very weak contribution to the economic growth. The ＂demand following＂ effect of economic growth helped to expand the size of insurance development and changes of its structure, but there was almost no relationship between the efficiency of in- surance development and economic growth.